Future of the T&T Gas Industry

28th April 2026

The news from Trinidad & Tobago’s energy sector seems to have been almost bipolar in recent months. On the one hand there has been very encouraging news on the progress with the Manatee, Ginger and Coconut projects and the promise of new gas coming on stream in 2027/2028, significant progress with Venezuelan gas, Exxon moving fast with their deepwater exploration, NGC’s reported increase in profits plus high prices on the back of the Iran War. On the other hand, there is the news of a crisis in Point Lisas, plant closures, job losses, and 56% of contractors reporting a decline in business activity in the first quarter of 2026. 

In the social media comment sections, the response to this bipolar picture has been predictably political, with people accusing anyone reporting the good news as being pro-government and anyone reporting the bad news as being pro-opposition. The reality is that both sides of the story are correct. In the most basic terms, there is a positive story in the upstream sector and a negative story in the downstream sector. 

The positive story in the upstream is being driven by investment in new production and the activity that this is creating. That means that in the next few years there will be increases in gas production and improved supply to the downstream sector, addressing the overarching issue that they are facing (a shortage of gas supply). Nevertheless, I am concerned about the future of the downstream petrochemical sector based in Point Lisas. 

Back in the 2000s, the then Prime Minister Patrick Manning had a very clear strategy for the gas industry.  Manning believed that the key for the development of the gas sector was creating downstream demand; he believed that once demand was expanding, upstream investment would inevitably take place and the gas would flow. 

This worked well until it didn’t. From around 2008, upstream investment fell away and gas production inevitably followed down, as reservoir decline rates kicked in. Over the past fifteen years (under both political parties) there has been a clear focus on getting the investment dollars into the upstream and getting gas production back up to meet the demand of the downstream plants. 

Despite this upstream success, the serious issues facing Point Lisas in the short term are a real cause for concern and a clear and present danger for the future of the gas industry. The concern must be to ensure that the demand for gas from the downstream plants is still in place when the gas begins to flow. We need both upstream and downstream to be healthy, if there is going to be a future for the gas industry. 

The negative stories do reflect a reality of the situation on the ground in Point Lisas. The most obvious sign of the crisis is the shuttered plants, most obviously the four ammonia and one urea plant belonging to Nutrien. The world-scale Atlas methanol plant belonging to Methanex is also offline.   The situation with the nine plants and complexes operated by Proman (the biggest player in Point Lisas) is a little less clear, but reportedly some of their plants are also offline. 

Business activity in Point Lisas is slower than I can ever remember. I have a personal proxy for economic activity that I monitor: how easy is it to find a parking space at Atlantic Plaza? When things are busy on the estate you often have to circle the building, numerous times hoping someone leaves, especially at lunchtime. Right now, you can park in front of Atlantic Plaza at noon.  

Employment on the estate is directly linked to the amount of maintenance taking place. The major planned turnarounds employ thousands of skilled and semi-skilled workers, when plants concentrate maintenance work into a short time frame to reduce the overall downtime.  With the uncertainty about the future of the downstream industry, plants are delaying or scaling back on their maintenance programmes while they are waiting to see what the future might hold. While there are positive signals from the upstream about future gas, companies will only make investment decisions based on gas supply contracts.  

This has implications for process safety that must be taken very seriously by the plants and by the government. 

A decade ago, there were over 14,000 people per annum who undertook the basic safety training and assessments to work for one of the contractors in the downstream plants (this does not include the staff directly employed by the plants). As the training has to be repeated once every two years, it would be a fair assumption that over 28,000 individuals at least did some work on the downstream plants at some point. That number has now dropped to 8,000 per annum, or 16,000 individuals; a 42 % decline. 

It is important to recognize that a lot of this employment is temporary and might only represent a few weeks of temporary work. Nevertheless, the jobs when they do come are usually well paid and are an important source of income for many households in central and south Trinidad.  Almost all of the workers in this sector are nationals, with very few imported workers. Therefore, these big maintenance projects have a big multiplier effect in the local economy. 

With less work available our strong, safe and competitive contracting companies are under real stress. Many have already downsized significantly and there is a danger that some will go out of business in the coming year.  I have worries about what this will mean for contractor safety in the future. 

Given the lack of opportunity in Trinidad for skilled labourers, many have chosen to emigrate to look for better opportunities elsewhere. There are many skilled Trinidadian workers who have moved to Guyana, Suriname and the United States.  This means that when contractors are looking for the skilled workers that they need to execute a project they often cannot find them. There is a skills shortage now showing up in Point Lisas, which also means that the maintenance projects are now riskier and the quality of work is being eroded. This also has implications for safety. 

The downstream gas industry is in a very challenging situation. The plants are not getting the gas that they need to operate efficiently, and gas purchase prices are high. While there is new gas that looks like it is coming down the pipeline in two years, my fear is firstly that we will not have all of the plants still in a position to be able to take the new gas, secondly the skilled labour force that has characterised Trinidad for decades will no longer be here, and thirdly that we would have lost many of our most competitive local contractor companies. 

The focus on upstream investment has to continue, but we also need to ensure that we protect the downstream. Manning made a policy error by thinking the upstream would take care of itself, if the downstream was growing. We need to make sure that we do not make a policy error in the other direction. All players along the energy value chain must survive and prosper if we are to have a sustainable gas industry.